So, Mati, can you give us an update about the last events in the markets? So bitcoin crossed 10, 000 over the weekend. Even popped its head above 11, 000 briefly at two different points. At the moment weve got a nice ascending triangle over here.
A lot of momentum right now. And what about other altcoins like litecoin, ethereum? Did you see any of these altcoins leading the last rally? Bitcoin is firmly in control of this rally. Its up about 10 on the week whereas some of the other altcoins, most of them are around 3, maybe 4. NEO is also flying, I dont know about that its 28, but I wouldnt say that NEO is really leading the market.
Definitely all of the focus from the mainstream media and from crypto enthusiasts is around bitcoin. Whats the difference between the current pattern of bitcoin compared to the one that we observed during the 2017 bubble? That is an excellent question, Giovanni. And what I can say is that the first time Bitcoin rose above 10, 000 per coin back in late 2017. It was amidst kind of FOMO driven rally and what I can say is that this time around, 10, 000 more reflects the true value and it seems a lot more sustainable given current adoption rates.
Here we can see the transaction rate in bitcoin in 2017 it did spike up to about 4.5 transactions per second, but it didnt stay there for very long. That was based on the speculation and hype, there was a big spike in the transaction rate. Actually, what we can see is throughout 2017, so since about January the transaction rate has been largely remained above 3.5 transactions per second, so we can see these days theres a lot more usage of the blockchain and that basically contributes to its valuation.
We can also look at the level of activity on LocalBitcoins which is a peertopeer trading site which also reflects real world usage much more than we would see United exchanges which is more speculative. And what will notice here is that since the overall volume at LocalBitcoins rose above 50 million around September 2017 which is about here and it actually has not gone significantly below that since. So meaning that all that time from then until now we have a lot more activity on the blockchain.
So this is a rapidly growing industry. 2017 brought us awareness, basically during that time the entire world was just kind of figuring out what bitcoin is and what its all about. And today ever since then we have that awareness and this is basically, this rally is driven by more fundamentals. Can you tell me something about the price levels?
Yes, so overall, I mean its very clear that the move above 10, 000 which was a strong psychological resistance level was a big driver. And now we can see very clearly the upward trajectory of this market. So if we start drawing our support and resistance levels well see that were just at the top of this channel at the moment.
So if we draw our support here along the bottom.
And then our resistance here along the top, and we can notice that were quite at the top of this channel which would normally mean that we could be due for a pullback if we do see a pullback. We can probably expect that 10, 000 level gets broken again down to the downside, possibly testing that 9, 000 level which was a resistance in early June. But it doesnt have to, I mean right now like I said we have an ascending triangle on the short term we could very well get a break to the upside, so well have to wait and see. What I do want to note is that break above 10, 000 happened on strong volume we can see in Messari crypto the Real 10 across the ten biggest exchanges is trading at 1.6 billion.
Thats a big number. Thats more than double what it was a week ago, almost triple. So definitely this move is coming with strong volume.
Regarding a recent article published by Cointelegraph in which there are four reasons why this time bitcoin can break the 20, 000 alltime highs. So the reasons included in the article are institutional demand as opposed to the retail back in 2017 and much better network fundamentals and macroeconomic problems within the fiat world. So do you agree with this kind of analysis?
100 I agree. And actually, Ill go you one further. About a week ago I posted a poll on my Twitter account and those were the four options that I gave to people. So not only are those the main drivers, but we can also see kind of what people are thinking of those main drivers moving the price more.
So, first of all, institutional investors, technicals and momentum, greater adoption and then the macroeconomic picture. It seems that most of the respondents on this poll were saying that institutional investment, the speculation that larger players are coming into the market: Facebook, were talking about Bakkt, were talking about Fidelity, were talking about in Japan they have Line which is a big messaging app over there which is set to open their own crypto exchange. So, we have a lot of excitement that larger players are about to enter the market, but overall I would say that that article is spot on, those are in conjunction the four main drivers. Thanks a lot, Mati, see you next week.
Thank you very much and have an awesome day. And as always guys, dont forget to subscribe to our channel to get more content on the latest market updates. Hi, guys, as you might know, Cointelegraph has its own merch store, and right now we have a special offer for all of our subscribers. Use the promocode HODLERSDIGEST30 to get a 30 discount on anything in our store.
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